"Shall we do this, then?" Silence is assent. It goes through 'on the nod'. And then you discover weeks later that no-one is actioning it and most people have no enthusiasm for it. How can you spot false consensus and help the group avoid settling for it?

I was working with a client team recently who described a meeting which for them seemed typical. A large group of participants, ostensibly collaborators in an international network, who frequently seem unengaged and take very little action between meetings. Proposals for collective activity are made, agreed with very little discussion (let alone dissent), very few people volunteer to take action and the projects run into the sand. The apparent agreement to act is not robust. They have only a 'false consensus'.

Spotting false consensus

In the absence of explicit disagreement, how can you tell that the consensus is false? Some of this will be culturally specific. Some national cultures revel in loud disagreement. Others take a euphemistic and subtle approach (I'm looking at you, UK). For some, disagreeing directly is almost taboo, especially if there is hierarchy involved.

Signs to look for include:

a lack of enthusiastic support;
silence;
few or no volunteers to take action.

Avoiding false consensus - slow it down

False consensus can arise when someone moves too early towards a proposal for action or a proposal for a common position. One way to enable a diversity of views to be expressed before proposals are agreed on is to build in more exploratory conversation in the 'adventure forest' part of a meeting. Inviting conversation explicitly about the upsides and downsides of options, and for the questions people have about them, signals that it is OK to talk about things clear-sightedly rather than one-sidedly. Prioritising options, rather than saying 'yes' or 'no' to the first idea which was put forward, provides more thinking time for a group.

Another way of giving the group permission to look at options from a variety of angles is to use De Bono's six thinking hats - take time to work through all six perspectives before moving to deciding.

Avoiding false consensus - anonymity

When power is unequal in a group, false consensus is much more likely: the less powerful people do not feel able to disagree with the more powerful. Anonymity can help equalise the power. Using a polling or surveying tool to prioritise among options, or to express support for or dissent from a proposal, is a great way of doing this. 'In the room' paper and pen responses can be collected up by the facilitator, or you could use a tool like feedback frames. In a virtual setting, Zoom has polls or you can use Slido or Menti or other tools alongside your video call or whiteboard. If anonymity is essential, make sure your settings don't accidentally reveal who has given which response.

Be explicit about the need to avoid it

It can be very helpful to the group to hear that false consensus is a phenomenon which can occur in groups, and that while it may relieve short-term discomfort, it gets in the way of discovering more effective ways forward. As a facilitator, if you suspect the group is sliding into agreement without enough discussion or airing of dissent, tell the group that you wonder if that is what's happening, and invite reflections and responses. Ask questions like:

"What are the downsides of this proposal, which we haven't considered yet?"
"Whose views have we not heard?"
"I'm not hearing enthusiastic support, and I'm not hearing disagreement either. Why is that?"
"Do we have agreement, or do we have a false consensus?"

Testing for real agreement

There is a difference between 'in principle' support (I'd like to see this happen) and 'active' support (I'll put time and resources into making it happen'). How do you know which kind of support there is in the group? Ask them. This tool makes it easier and can be useful when there are lots of options and you want to save time in identifying those with solid 'active' support.

Making the Path by Walking

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